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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central
convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective
band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the
latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an
opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it
moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and
SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase
and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination
of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global
models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96
hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low.
The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest
geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast
remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to
west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the
cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward
motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids
and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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