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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018
 
A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation
has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has
been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past
several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical
Depression Eight.  However, the satellite presentation is not very
well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low.
Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual
strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that
the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind
pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of
HCCA and the simple intensity consensus.
 
The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt
around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the
ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering
flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same
track for the next several days, although by the end of the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward
moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the
multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Avila
 
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