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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Fabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud
pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several
hours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area
coverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates
from all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this
time. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.

Fabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a
shallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest
steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC forecast continues to be
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the
multi-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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