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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The depression is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep
convective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to
the southeast of the estimated center.  Since the Dvorak
classifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial wind speed is held at that value.  This intensity estimate
is also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin.  Even though the system is currently not
very strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands
extending about 300 n mi from the center.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  This general
motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level
ridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering
feature.  The track models are in very good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.  The
cyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast
period.

Environmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to
strengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical
wind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level
air mass.  The models respond to these favorable conditions by
unanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the
next few days.  However, the models disagree on how strong the
system might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days.  The
SHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane
strength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker.
Regardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend
should end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models.
This forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the
large size of the system could make the initial strengthening
process more gradual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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