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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Daniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery
indicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a
single burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial
intensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass
around 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure
of the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The
tropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it
is likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of
the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually
spin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep
convection within the next 48 h.  Essentially no change has been
made to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to
dissipate by 96 hours.

Several recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the
tropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a
result, the official track forecast has been nudged in that
direction for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the
previous advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in
the reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still
expected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it
moves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel
becomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level
tradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the
middle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models
TVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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