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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Although convective banding features have become less distinct since
the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold
cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of
the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is
restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt
based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.

The depression has continued to move northward and the motion
estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes
were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement
that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the
system moving over cooler water and weakening.  The more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast
track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.

The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear
ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the
next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs
in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more
stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only
modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady
weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant
low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.
However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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