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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Carlotta remains a compact tropical storm with deep convection
confined to a region of about 75 n mi from the center.  Although
the convection is a little stronger than earlier today, the Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 2.5/35 kt.
Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value.

After moving northward to northeastward throughout the day, Carlotta
has now stalled and the latest satellite and radar images indicate
that the system is drifting to the southeast.  The models insist
that a northeastward motion should resume soon, however, and all of
the guidance show Carlotta moving inland over southern Mexico by
Saturday afternoon.  The NHC official track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one, due to the initial motion and
position, and lies close to the various consensus aids.

Carlotta could strengthen slightly before landfall, due to the
influences of very warm SSTs and moderate shear, but a quick demise
is expected once the system moves inland.  Even though a 24-h
forecast position is shown below, most of the models dissipate
Carlotta by then.

The main threat from Carlotta is the heavy rainfall and the
associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over
the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The significant
rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting
the southern Sierra Madre mountains.  For details, please see
products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.4N  98.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.9N  98.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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