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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...RAINS HEADING FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the watches and warnings
for Baja California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bud is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to
move away from southern Baja California Sur and move over the Gulf
of California today. The weakening cyclone is expected to move over
mainland Mexico by the end of the day or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today and
dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should have abated by now in Baja
California Sur.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
mainland Mexico watch area later this morning.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in
northwestern Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible in southern portions of Baja
California Sur before the rain ends.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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