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Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018


The cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized,
and a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible
images. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the
Dvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65-
kt winds in this advisory.  The environment continues to be quite
favorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes
continue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very
close to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for
additional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48
hours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone
approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.

The best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward
the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the
flow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western
United States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western
edge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn
toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high
confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since
guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time,
the guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models
bring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California
peninsula.

Although the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the
southwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by
rainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have
the possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along
a portion of the coast.  Consequently, the Government of Mexico
has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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