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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on
satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over
the southeastern portions of the circulation.  The current
intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.  There is low shear over the storm and the ocean
waters are very warm.  These environmental factors should continue
to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a
hurricane within a day or so.  The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance.  As
noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification,
especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and
subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher.  Beyond 72
hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the
cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.

The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about
310/8 kt.  Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico.  In the
latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the
north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the
high.  This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of
mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula later in the week.  It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity
forecasts.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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