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Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Deep convection associated with Aletta has waned overnight, and as a
result, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased.  A
recent ASCAT overpass that was very helpful in locating the center
of Aletta indicated that the cyclone's winds have decreased to
around 35 kt.  The tropical storm is forecast to weaken while it
moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more
stable air mass during the next day or so.  Aletta is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours, but this could
occur sooner if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that the tropical storm is moving
west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  The cyclone should turn westward
today, then west-southwestward by Tuesday as it is steered by the
low-level tradewind flow.  The low-level flow is expected to become
quite light as Hurricane Bud moves northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  This should cause Aletta's remnants to become
nearly stationary by mid-week.  The track guidance is in fairly
good agreement through 48 hours, but diverges considerably after
that time due to the lack of well-defined steering currents.  The
NHC forecast has been shifted slightly eastward at 48 h and beyond
to be closer to the various consensus tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 17.0N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 17.0N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 16.9N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 16.6N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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