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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018
 
The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to
the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past
several hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away
from the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity
estimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30
kt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is
forecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I
have no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into
a remnant low within the next 12 hours or so.
 
Satellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the
west or 280 degrees at about 4 kt.  The depression or its remnants
will continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the
northwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This
is the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the
system opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to
expected a westward drift instead.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Avila
 
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