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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the
depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the
main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours.  Despite
the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data
confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.  Since the shear
is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more
difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection
near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low by 24 hours.  The remnant low should then dissipate in
about 3 days.

The depression has been moving due westward during the past few
hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.
The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its
northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down
during the next couple of days.  The updated NHC forecast track has
been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for
the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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