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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern consists of a large and vigorous circulation,
but the convection is shallow at this time. Dvorak numbers only
support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, while Leslie
is over fairly cool SSTs.  After that time, Leslie will encounter
warmer waters, and since the shear is low, some re-intensification
is anticipated. Leslie will likely become a hurricane once again
by the end of the week as indicated by the guidance.

Leslie is still moving east-southeastward at about 11 kt. Since
Leslie is embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, this
general motion will likely continue for the next 2 days or so.
This is consistent with most of the track guidance, which continue
to show a southeastward motion of the cyclone during that period.
Another shortwave trough in the westerlies will bypass the cyclone,
but will modify the steering flow, and Leslie should then turn to
the east-northeast. It should be emphasized that confidence in the
track forecast remains low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 35.7N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 35.2N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 33.8N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 32.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 28.5N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 30.0N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 32.0N  24.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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