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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 58.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm
warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.  Another Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kirk
later this morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mostly north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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