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Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk is barely meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone.  The
small low-level center is still exposed well to the west of most of
the deep convection.  The last fix from the earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found that the cyclone was still
closed, but the maximum winds had decreased to near 35 kt.  Since
it seems likely that winds of this magnitude are still occuring in
the convection to the east of Kirk, the system is maintained as a
tropical storm for this advisory.  Another reconnaissance mission
is scheduled for tonight, and it should give a better estimate of
the intensity of Kirk, and if the cyclone still has a well-defined
surface circulation.

No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity
forecasts. Kirk is expected to move generally west-northwestward to
northwestward over the next 12 hours or so while weakening due to
the continued effects of strong westerly wind shear. By tomorrow
morning, the cyclone will likely have degenerated into a trough of
low pressure.  Even though Kirk is weakening, heavy rains are
expected over St Croix and eastern Puerto Rico during the next day
or two while Kirk or its remnants pass to the south of those
islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 14.7N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 15.3N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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