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Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining
into the circulation.  Visible satellite imagery this morning
shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with
only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles
northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate
that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the
cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical
depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear
are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and
the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24
hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable
change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a
little faster than the previous advisory.

The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this
morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of
days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and
then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The
lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track
forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to
the previous official forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 34.0N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 33.5N  27.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 32.3N  26.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 31.2N  27.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 30.3N  28.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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