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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 51.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be
issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 51.3 West.  Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On the
forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the
central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it
moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening
forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch
areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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