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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE  60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N  51.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.7N  54.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N  57.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.1N  59.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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