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Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the
high shear and cold waters.  The center is well displaced to the
west of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.  Helene is
heading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear.  This
should cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or
sooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance.  By 72 hours, the cyclone
should have been absorbed by a much larger low.

Helene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt.
Since the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general
track should continue with an increase in forward speed until
dissipation.  This is consistent with track models which are in
excellent agreement.  On the forecast track, Helene should head
toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a
strong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should
consult products from their local meteorological service for
information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 41.2N  30.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 43.2N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1200Z 49.0N  13.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0000Z 53.5N   6.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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