ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.  Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.6 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Florence is still a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Re-strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and
Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN