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HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  72.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  72.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  71.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N  74.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.4N  75.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.9N  77.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N  77.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N  79.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 35.6N  83.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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