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Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018

A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of
Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a
subtropical cyclone.  Most of the convection is in a ragged band
well to the northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.
The global models are in good agreement that the system will open
up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure
system within 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt.  Debby
is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of
a mid-level trough.  The official forecast is somewhat faster than
the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the
previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 40.3N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 41.2N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 43.9N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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