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Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

Deep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern is
taking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transition
with the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only a
small area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbers
from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone has
weakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initial
intensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory.  Chris will be moving
over much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cyclone
is forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it moves
very near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today.
After that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue toward
the northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or
4 days.

Chris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on this
general track until it becomes absorbed.  Track models are in
excellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasing
the confidence in the NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 42.1N  60.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 45.4N  55.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  13/0600Z 49.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/1800Z 52.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z 54.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/0600Z 60.0N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  16/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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