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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
water.  Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.

The initial motion remains 050/9.  Chris is becoming embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the
southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern United states.  The combination of these features
should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North
Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in
about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track
and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster
than the previous forecast.

The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler
water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely
slow the intensification rate.  Otherwise, conditions appear
favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris
moves north of the Gulf Stream.  Extratropical transition should
begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete
before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland.  After
that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses
the North Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast is increased from
the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends,
and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h
based on the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 34.2N  71.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 35.8N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 38.8N  64.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 42.8N  59.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 46.6N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z 53.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0000Z 57.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0000Z 61.5N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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