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Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a
little better organized, surface observations and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain
at 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the
depression later this morning, so we will have more information
about the intensity and structure of the depression later today.
The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively
low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these
conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a
rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone
will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by
the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and
little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,
the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing
forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow
motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone
to accelerate to the northeast thereafter.  The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On
this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 33.1N  74.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 33.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 33.5N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 33.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 33.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 35.5N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 39.5N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 47.0N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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