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Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The storm
is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected later tonight, and a
motion toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then move near
or over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the warning area
late Monday afternoon or Monday night.  Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.  The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph
(61 km/h) and a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern Florida.  Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf
Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and
continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward
after landfall.  Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern
Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
and in the warning area along the west coast of Florida beginning
later tonight and Sunday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected
within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday
night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across the Keys
and south Florida tonight, and across all of the state on Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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