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SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA... IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  85.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.6N  85.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.3N  85.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N  86.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.4N  87.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 33.3N  88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 38.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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