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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
700 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 105.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 105.5
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the depression is
expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico tonight into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, western Jalisco and Nayarit.  This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the
southern portion of the warning area this evening or early Sunday,
and gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast on Sunday and
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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