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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PILAR...
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 105.3 West. Pilar is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north to
north-northwest track is expected to continue through the weekend.
On the forecast track, Pilar will move over or very near the
coast of Jalisco on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is likely tonight
and on Sunday before Pilar nears the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum of 15 inches over the
western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, western
Jalisco and Nayarit through Monday.   This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the
southern portion of the warning area tonight or early Sunday,
and gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast on Sunday and
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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