ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Satellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength this evening. The center of the system is difficult to locate, but extrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary images suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas Marias. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some of the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could be a little conservative. Pilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the tropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of western Mexico. This land interaction combined with an increase in south-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or less. It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could dissipate sooner than shown here. A long term motion has been northward at 8 kt. A slower north to north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast lies closest to the ECMWF and UKMET models. The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of Sinaloa during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:40 UTC