ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The satellite appearance of Norma hasn't changed much since the last advisory, with a large curved band in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. Dvorak estimates support keeping the wind speed 45 kt for this advisory. Norma is forecast to gradually weaken starting Monday since it will be moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable airmass. No change was made to the previous forecast as the guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario. Norma is now moving west-northwestward, turning slightly to the left since the last advisory while it moves around a deep-layer ridge over northwestern Mexico. In about 3 days, the ridge weakens somewhat, which should allow the cyclone, or its remnants, to turn northwestward then northward. Guidance has continued to shift westward, and the official forecast is again moved in that direction. Because of the more offshore track, the chances of seeing tropical-storm-force winds over land are quite low, and the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 21.4N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.8N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.1N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 23.7N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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