ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Deep convection associated with Norma is restricted to a curved band to the north and the west of the center. Dvorak classifications continue to fall and a blend of the SAB/TAFB numbers indicates initial maximum winds of 40 kt, consistent with some weakening since the overnight ASCAT pass. Norma should continue to decay due to the combination of dry air, cooler SSTs, and a convergent upper-troposphere. Transition to a remnant low is expected in about three days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus technique and is slightly lower than the previous advisory. Norma is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt, steered by a deep-layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical storm should turn toward the northwest or west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. By days 3 to 5, Norma's remnant low should meander west of the southern tip of Baja California. The official track forecast is based upon a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and the ECMWF - the best performing model for this system. The new prediction is slightly west of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 20.9N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 21.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 21.7N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 22.8N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 23.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN
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