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Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

What goes up must come down -- Otis is a classic example of what can
happen with a small tropical cyclone.  After rapidly intensifying
earlier today, the cloud pattern has become rather poorly
organized, with the center on the western edge of an irregular
central dense overcast.  The wind speed is reduced to 85 kt, on the
high side of the latest Dvorak estimates, and this could be
generous.  Further weakening is likely since Otis has moved over
cool SSTs and increasing shear is expected by tomorrow.  Thus,
rapid weakening is forecast, and the official intensity is reduced
from the previous one, lying near the model consensus, although
the corrected consensus models are even lower.  Global models
suggest Otis will degenerate into a remnant low within 2 days.

Otis is still moving northward, recently at 5 kt.  This northward
motion should turn to the west and southwest over the next 36
hours as it is steered by a low-level ridge over the central
Pacific.  The global models are generally showing a stronger ridge,
and the guidance has shifted farther southwest with the track of the
expected remnants of the cyclone. The new NHC prediction follows the
latest guidance, resulting in a faster track that is to the
southwest of the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 18.5N 127.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 19.2N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 19.3N 127.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 19.0N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 18.2N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z 14.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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