ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The center of Jova remains exposed based on GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery. Another strong burst of convection has developed since 0300Z within 60 nmi southwest of the center, justifying the maintenance of Jova as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. Two ASCAT passes at 0443Z and 0529Z each indicated peak surface winds of 24 kt in the western semicircle. However, since the scatterometers missed the eastern semicircle, the intensity will be maintained at 30 kt based on a Dvorak satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB. The motion estimate remains westward, or 270/13 kt. The initial position had to be adjusted southward slightly based on GOES-16 high-resolution imagery and the two ASCAT passes that just caught the low-level circulation center. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the bulk of the NHC model guidance to remain intact, driving the cyclone and its remnants westward to west-southwestward until the system degenerates into an open trough in 3-4 days. Intermittent short bursts of convection may continue to develop for the next 12-18 h or so, but on the whole, there should be a general decrease in both the intensity and coverage of any convection. By 24 hours and beyond, moderate easterly wind shear near 20 kt along with decreasing mid-level moisture and marginal SSTs below 26C should result in steady weakening and a gradual spin down of the circulation. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus model IVCN, with remnant low status expected in about 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 20.4N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1800Z 20.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 20.3N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 19.8N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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