ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 The convective structure of Jova is practically non-existent. Deep convection is limited to a small burst southwest of the center. A pair of ASCAT passes at 1638 UTC and 1732 UTC showed maximum winds of around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, making Jova a tropical depression. Even though the vertical wind shear is still very high, the rapid decline of convection is a little surprising to me since the SSTs beneath the circulation are above 28 deg C, and the tropical cyclone is embedded within an environment of high total precipitable water and moderate mid-level moisture. Given those environmental factors, the NHC forecast assumes that Jova will regain at least a little convection and maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 h. However, if current trends continue, the depression could become a remnant low sooner than indicated. After about 24 h, the cyclone should gradually spin down while moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier environment. Since the center of circulation is completely exposed, the motion is now a far more certain 280/12 kt. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, and the depression, or its remnants, should continue moving steadily westward, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north until eventual dissipation in 3 or 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 20.9N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 20.4N 127.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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