ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 900 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Shear has lessened over the system and the center now appears to be beneath the dense overcast. The intensity is held at 35 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Greg moves over warm waters. Late in the period, increasing shear and cooler waters should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or a little below the model consensus. Greg has been moving west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge. Although the ridge is expected to remain in place for the next several days, a slight complicating factor in the track forecast is a cyclone, newly formed Tropical Depression Eight-E, located about 500 n mi to the west of Greg. Some of the models indicate that Greg could interact with the other cyclone in a few days by turning south of west. The official forecast shows a slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the period. This is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 15.0N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.2N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 15.7N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.2N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.5N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 17.3N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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