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Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017

Eugene has strengthened rapidly over the past 24 h and has reached
hurricane strength during the past few hours.  Recent microwave
imagery indicates that a 25 n mi wide eye has formed, and this
feature has also appeared sporadically in visible and infrared
imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various
satellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range. The hurricane
continues to have good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions
as it remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear.

Smoothing through the wobbles of the formative eye, the initial
motion is 320/7.  The hurricane is moving toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, and
the track forecast guidance is in good agreement that a
northwestward motion should continue through the forecast period,
with some increase in forward speed during the first 24 h and some
decrease in forward speed after 72 h.  The guidance has changed
little since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast.

Eugene should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment for about the next 24 h.  Thus, additional strengthening
is expected, with the main question being will the current rate of
intensification continue.  The forecast peak intensity is increased
to 90 kt, which is above the intensity guidance but could be
conservative if the intensification rate does not decrease.  After
24 hours, the cyclone should move over colder water, with the sea
surface temperature along the forecast track expected to be near
21C by 96 h.  This should cause Eugene to steadily or rapidly weaken
after 24 h, with the system expected to decay to a remnant low by 96
h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 14.4N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.4N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 20.2N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 24.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 26.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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