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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Microwave images indicate that Dora stopped producing deep
convection soon after 0000 UTC, and all cloud tops warmed above -50C
by 0245 UTC.  The circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt
based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates.  Deep convection is unlikely to return due to cold sea
surface temperatures, and Dora is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low later this morning or this afternoon.

Dora has slowed down with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt.
A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should
maintain Dora on a similar west-northwestward trajectory for the
next day or two.  Based on the latest surface fields from the GFS
and ECMWF models, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 48
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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