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Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

The only significant change to Rina in the past several hours is the
redevelopment of a small area of deep convection near the center.
Otherwise, the large cyclone continues to have a somewhat
subtropical appearance in satellite imagery, although available
microwave data still indicate Rina is best classified as tropical.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on ASCAT data from
earlier today. Rina should lose all deep convection overnight as it
moves over very cold waters and is forecast to become a frontal
cyclone within 24 hours. Little change in strength is forecast
throughout the period, consistent with the global model guidance.
The extratropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or west of
Ireland by day 3, although some of the guidance isn't clear on
exactly when that will occur.

Rina continues to accelerate northward, now at about 20 kt. The
storm has been interacting with an upper-level low, as seen on water
vapor images, which has kept the cyclone a bit west of the previous
forecast. However, Rina is forecast to turn north-northeastward
overnight and accelerate northeastward by Thursday night due to the
cyclone leaving the influence of the upper low and entering stronger
mid-latitude flow. The models are again west of the previous
forecast in the short term, so the new NHC forecast is adjusted to
the west, similar to a blend of the latest consensus and corrected
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 40.9N  48.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 44.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  09/1800Z 49.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 53.5N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 55.5N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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