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Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 67.5 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from the
northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening.  The core will then
pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
aircraft remain 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring
over portions of Puerto Rico but should gradually subside this
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the warning
areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should
start in the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions
starting Thursday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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