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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
* CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  64.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  916 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  64.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  63.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N  66.7W...OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  68.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N  69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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