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HURRICANE MARIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0000 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  61.1W AT 19/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  925 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  61.1W AT 19/0000Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  60.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N  61.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N  63.3W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.3N  64.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N  66.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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