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TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* GUADELOUPE
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 
OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  56.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  56.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  55.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N  57.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N  59.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N  60.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.1N  62.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N  64.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  56.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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