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TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  52.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  52.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  51.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.0N  54.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N  56.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.2N  59.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N  62.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 19.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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