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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria's pressure has fallen a few millibars
since this morning, but there has been little overall change in
intensity.  A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency
Radiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind
speed of around 90 kt.  Maria will be traversing warm water and
remain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and
some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday.
After that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left
over from Hurricane Jose.  This is likely to result in gradual
weakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status
through the entire forecast period.

Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is
currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a
cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over
the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane
should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to
the north of the system over the northeastern United States.  After
72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as
the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude
trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the
end of the week.  The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly
similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side
of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge.  The NHC track
is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus
aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean.

Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-
force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48
hours.  As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a
portion of the coast of North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 29.4N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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