ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Lee is passing over waters near 22 deg C, and convection is quickly
disappearing.  Although satellite classifications are lower, the
initial intensity has been lowered only to 55 kt, since the forward
speed of the tropical storm continues to increase and this is likely
helping to counter the loss of convection.  Regardless of the true
intensity, Lee will soon dissipate as it continues accelerating
toward the northeast, and the circulation spins down over the next
12 to 24 hours.  The NHC forecast conservatively shows Lee as a
tropical cyclone for 12 more hours, but it would not be surprising
if the system becomes a remnant low as early as tonight before
opening into a trough and dissipating on Saturday.

As noted above, Lee has continued to accelerate toward the
northeast, and the initial motion estimate is now 045/31 kt. The
dynamical models are in good agreement that Lee will continue on
that heading, with an increase in forward speed for the next 12
hours or so.  Almost no change has been made to the official track
forecast, and the models remain tightly clustered through the
very short forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 42.2N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 45.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN