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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa
Clara. This includes the Cuban Keys along the north shore of these
provinces.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus
and Villa Clara.
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo,Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 71.1 West. Irma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye
of Irma should continue to move between Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos Islands this evening. The core of the hurricane will then
move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next
day or two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight.
Hurricane conditions already affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the
southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by
tonight or early Friday.  Hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late
Friday and Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...
additional 1 to 2 inches
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches
Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast
coast of the United States later today and tonight.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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