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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti
from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
for the coast of Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to
Port-Au-Prince.

The government of France has discontinued all warnings for
Guadeloupe.

The government of Antigua has discontinued all warnings for Antigua,
Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the
progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 64.0 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions
of the Virgin Islands very soon, pass near or just north of Puerto
Rico this afternoon or tonight, pass near or just north of the
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and
Caicos and southeastern Bahamas late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue today within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands.  Hurricane conditions are
occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread
westward over portions of Puerto Rico later today.  Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
in the Dominican Republic and and Haiti on Thursday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to
10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint
Croix...2 to 4 inches
Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20
inches
Northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, eastern and central
Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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