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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

Visible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that
the center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.  The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well
organized, with distinct banding features and well-defined
upper-level outflow.  Based on the assumption that only slow
weakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt.
Franklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves
over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.  The dynamical
guidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to
affect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus.  Given
that it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by
the time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch
for the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

The motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf
coast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple
of days.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous
ones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 20.2N  90.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 20.5N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  09/1800Z 20.6N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 20.7N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 20.4N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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